Is 2026 a Good Year to Sell? The Truth No One Puts on a Billboard
If you’re waiting for the “perfect” market… congrats on your new hobby.
Every year, homeowners ask: “Should I sell this year… or wait?” And every year, the internet responds with the emotional stability of a caffeinated squirrel:
“Prices are up! Sell now!”
“Rates are high! Don’t sell!”
“Inventory is low! You’ll win!”
“Buyers are picky! You’ll lose!”
Meanwhile, real life is over here like: “Cool story. Anyway… I got a job offer, a divorce, a baby, a probate situation, a health issue, an aging parent, and a burning desire to stop maintaining a yard the size of a small national park.”
So let’s talk about 2026 in a way that’s actually useful, specifically for Kitsap and Pierce County, Washington, with the stuff that truly moves your odds (and your net).
The quick reality check: what we can see heading into 2026
Here’s what late-2025 data was already telling us in our backyard:
Kitsap County median sale price was around $599K in Nov 2025, up ~7.8% year-over-year, with homes averaging about 40 days on market. (NWMLS)
Pierce County median sale price was around $570K in Nov 2025, up ~1.8% year-over-year, with homes averaging about 41 days on market. (NWMLS)
Inventory stayed tight in both counties—months of inventory in Nov 2025 was about 2.24 in Kitsap and 2.85 in Pierce (and “balanced” is often considered ~4–6 months). Translation: still more seller-leaning than buyer-leaning, even if buyers are moodier than they were in 2021. (NWMLS)
Mortgage rates were trending down late 2025: Freddie Mac’s 30-year average hit ~6.15% at the end of 2025, the lowest level that year, with commentary pointing to rates staying just above 6% into 2026 (not “back to 3%,” so everyone can unclench about that). (Freddie Mac)
So, is 2026 a “good year to sell”?
It can be, but not because of one magic number. It depends on seller leverage, which is influenced by a handful of very specific forces that most people never understand until they’ve already made a decision based on a headline.
Seller leverage: the 7 things that decide how much power you have
If you want the honest truth, it’s this: “Is it a good year to sell?” is the wrong question.
The better question is: “Will I have leverage when I sell?”
Because leverage is what determines whether you’re getting:
multiple offers vs. awkward silence
clean terms vs. a concession buffet
appraisal stress vs. smooth sailing
“as-is” confidence vs. “please don’t notice the roof” panic
Here are the real levers.
1) Inventory (aka: how much competition you have)
Low inventory is the seller’s best friend. When buyers have fewer choices, they behave… better. (Or at least, less chaotic.)
Kitsap and Pierce both stayed under “balanced” inventory levels in late 2025. (NWMLS)
That doesn’t mean every home sells instantly. It means good homes, priced right, tend to keep an advantage.
Kitsap note: When inventory is tight, the “best” homes (condition + location + layout) get rewarded disproportionately. The “meh” homes still sell, but the market asks them to earn it.
Pierce note: Pierce is big and varied. “Pierce County market” is like saying “ocean weather.” Gig Harbor is not Spanaway. North Tacoma is not South Hill. One county, multiple planets.
2) Mortgage rates (aka: buyer monthly payment pain)
Buyers don’t shop by price. They shop by payment.
Rates drifting from “ouch” to “less ouch” can increase demand even if prices don’t change much, because demand is often constrained by affordability, not desire.
Freddie Mac’s rate trend into 2026 matters because when rates soften, you often see:
more buyers re-enter
more competition for good listings
fewer “I’ll just wait” people sitting on the sidelines (Freddie Mac)
3) Employment + economic stability (aka: who feels safe making big moves)
In our region, demand is heavily influenced by major employers and commute patterns. Real estate is local, but paychecks are… aggressively persuasive.
Kitsap demand is shaped by the Navy ecosystem, ferry access/commuting patterns, and folks priced out of adjacent metro areas.
Pierce demand is shaped by JBLM’s orbit, Tacoma’s job base, and Seattle spillover (especially as people chase space and relative value).
When buyers feel secure, they transact. When they feel weird, they “watch the market” like it’s a Netflix series.
4) Seasonality (aka: the demand cycle nobody respects until they miss it)
Real estate has seasons even when people pretend it doesn’t.
In Western Washington, you typically see:
Spring: most demand + strongest competition + best presentation window
Early summer: still strong, slightly less frantic
Late summer/fall: solid but more selective
Winter: fewer buyers, fewer listings, but serious shoppers
The “best” time isn’t always when demand is highest. It’s when your home looks its best and your buyer pool is awake.
5) Your home type (because not all listings compete equally)
A 3-bed, 2-bath, move-in-ready home competes in a totally different universe than:
a waterfront property
a fixer
a condo with spicy HOA rules
a rural home with septic/well + acreage + “mystery outbuildings”
Kitsap: Waterfront and view properties can behave differently than in-town neighborhoods. Their buyer pool is smaller, but often more committed (and more inspection-forward).
Pierce: Newer construction and “commuter-friendly” locations can draw steady attention, until affordability pinches.
6) Your condition + presentation (the “you control this part” category)
Market conditions matter, but so does the fact that buyers have eyeballs.
In slower-feeling moments, condition becomes a louder voice:
Pre-inspected homes can reduce buyer anxiety.
Clean + updated beats “we’ll fix it later” nine times out of ten.
“Great bones” is not a renovation plan. It’s a compliment people give right before they write a lower offer.
7) Pricing strategy (where dreams go to die, or thrive)
Pricing is not “what you want.”
Pricing is a strategy designed to create competition, urgency, and clean terms.
In 2026, if buyers are payment-sensitive (hello, rates), the homes that win are often the ones that:
are positioned tightly against comps
look better than their competition
have fewer “unknowns” (inspection surprises, deferred maintenance, weird seller vibes)
Kitsap County in 2026: what tends to influence leverage here
Kitsap is wonderfully unique because it’s not one thing. It’s waterfront, military, rural, ferry-adjacent, and “I want trees and quiet but still need groceries.”
Based on late-2025 trends, higher year-over-year pricing gains than Pierce, and still-low inventory, Kitsap entered 2026 with decent structural support.
What typically boosts Kitsap seller leverage:
Move-in-ready homes in high-demand pockets (Silverdale, Poulsbo, parts of Port Orchard, Bainbridge-adjacent areas)
Functional layouts (open-ish, but not “why is the laundry in the kitchen?”)
Ferry/commute convenience (even if commute culture shifts, access still matters)
Waterfront / view homes that are priced and positioned properly (not “Seattle prices because I can see water”)
What can weaken it:
Deferred maintenance (especially roofs, septic issues, moisture/mold flags—Pacific Northwest gonna Pacific Northwest)
Overpricing because “inventory is low,” ignoring that buyers still do math
Unique properties with limited comps + ambitious expectations
Pierce County in 2026: why your micro-market matters more than your county
Pierce is huge and diverse. The data in late 2025 showed modest year-over-year price growth and a similar days-on-market pace, with inventory still under balanced levels.
Translation: not a crashy vibe, but also not “throw it on the market and name your price.”
What typically boosts Pierce seller leverage:
Great school-zone pull (where applicable)
Strong commute positioning
Updated homes that feel modern and low-hassle
Neighborhoods with consistent demand (Tacoma areas, Puyallup/South Hill corridors, University Place, etc., depending on the exact street and product type)
What can weaken it:
Being “one of many” similar listings (tract neighborhoods can get competitive fast)
Homes that show tired (carpet, paint, lighting, maintenance)
Pricing that ignores buyer payment sensitivity
The billboard truth: it’s not always about the money
Here’s the part that doesn’t get said loudly enough:
Sometimes selling in 2026 is the right move even if the market isn’t handing out trophy checks.
Because life still happens:
Divorce doesn’t wait for lower rates.
A new job doesn’t care about months of inventory.
A parent needing care doesn’t schedule itself around spring demand.
Mental health, burnout, and “I hate this house now” are real reasons.
Sometimes you want a different lifestyle, less maintenance, more freedom, closer to people you love.
And you’re allowed to choose the move that supports your life, not just your spreadsheet.
Yes, we want you to net as much as possible. But the highest price is not always the highest value outcome, especially if waiting costs you:
another year of mortgage payments
another year of repairs
another year of stress
another year of being stuck
Money matters. It’s just not the only thing that matters.
So… is 2026 a good year to sell in Kitsap & Pierce County?
Here’s the most honest answer:
2026 can be a good year to sell if you can create leverage, through timing, preparation, positioning, and price strategy, within your specific micro-market.
And we have some structural reasons to believe demand won’t be dead on arrival:
Inventory in both counties was still tight heading into 2026. (NWMLS)
Rates weren’t back to 3%, but they were lower than earlier in 2025 and expected to hover just above 6%. (Freddie Mac)
National outlook chatter suggested a more active 2026 than 2025 if rates ease and buyers re-engage. (Barron's)
But “good year” is personal. Let’s make it practical.
The 12-question “Should I sell in 2026?” test
Answer these honestly:
If you didn’t own this house, would you buy it today at today’s payment?
Is your home in a high-demand pocket for your county?
Is your home move-in-ready… or “Pinterest says no”?
Are you willing to do basic prep (paint, landscaping, lighting, cleaning like royalty is visiting)?
Can you handle showings without becoming emotionally attached to your throw pillows?
Do you have a realistic plan for where you’re going next?
Would selling solve a life problem (stress, commute, maintenance, family need)?
Would waiting 12 months materially improve your outcome or is it just hope?
Are you financially comfortable if you need to offer concessions (closing costs, rate buy down, repairs)?
Are you prepared for inspection negotiations like an adult?
Are you expecting 2021 pricing energy… in 2026? (Be brave. Say it out loud.)
If you don’t sell, what’s the cost of staying?
If your answers scream “this move supports my life and I can position the home well,” 2026 might be your year.
How to win as a seller in 2026 (even if the market feels moody)
A strong market forgives mistakes. A normal market exposes them. Here’s how you stay on the winning side.
1) Get ahead of inspection issues
Pre-inspection or pre-list consultation can help you choose:
what to fix
what to disclose
what to leave alone
how to price for reality
This is especially helpful in older housing stock pockets across both counties.
2) Make your home look “easy”
Buyers pay more for “I don’t have to deal with it.”
Top ROI prep items (usually):
interior paint touch-ups / modern neutrals
lighting upgrades (yes, it matters)
curb appeal cleanup
professional cleaning
minor repairs you’ve been ignoring because you live there and your standards slipped (it happens)
3) Price for traction, not ego
The goal is not to “test the market.” The goal is to create urgency.
Overpricing in a payment-sensitive environment often leads to:
fewer showings
longer market time
price reductions
buyers assuming something is wrong
a weaker negotiation position later
4) Understand demand cycles and list when your home shows best
If your yard shines in May/June, don’t list in February unless you have a compelling reason. If your view pops in winter, use that.
Seasonality isn’t a rule, just a lever.
5) Be strategic with concessions (don’t panic-offer them)
Concessions in 2026 might be more common than during the frenzy years. That’s not “bad.” It’s just the market balancing.
Sometimes a concession:
increases buyer pool
reduces payment shock
helps appraisal risk
keeps net higher than chasing the price down later
The trick is using them intentionally, not emotionally.
FAQs (because Google loves these, and so do buyers)
Will home prices drop in Kitsap or Pierce County in 2026?
They can fluctuate by micro-market and home type. Heading into 2026, both counties showed continued demand and constrained inventory, which can support pricing, but affordability and rates influence how far prices can run. (NWMLS)
Are buyers still buying at 6%+ mortgage rates?
Yes, especially when rates stabilize and buyers adjust expectations. Late 2025 rate averages were around 6.15% per Freddie Mac, with expectations that rates may remain just above 6% into 2026. (Freddie Mac)
Is it smarter to wait for lower rates before selling?
Lower rates can increase buyer demand, but waiting has costs (payments, maintenance, time, life constraints). Also, lower rates can bring out more sellers too, which increases competition. The best strategy is usually: sell when your life needs it and your home can be positioned to win.
What’s the best month to sell in Kitsap and Pierce County?
Often spring/early summer, but the best month is when your home will present its strongest and your plan is clean (prep, pricing, next move). Demand cycles matter, but execution matters more.
What matters more: market conditions or home condition?
In normal markets, home condition and pricing often decide your outcome more than headlines do. Market conditions set the stage; your home’s presentation and strategy decide whether you get applause or awkward silence.
2026 doesn’t have to be “perfect” to be profitable and it definitely doesn’t need to be perfect to be right for your life
If you’re in Kitsap or Pierce County and considering selling in 2026, here’s the truth:
Inventory levels and demand trends suggest sellers can still have leverage, especially with the right product and strategy. (NWMLS)
Rates matter, but they’re not the only driver and they were trending more buyer-friendly than earlier in 2025. (Freddie Mac)
The “right time” is often when the move supports your life, not just your bank account.
If you want the cleanest answer for your situation, the winning move is a hyperlocal analysis: your neighborhood, your competition, your price band, your home type, and your timing options. That’s where the real truth lives, quietly, while the billboards scream.
If you want, tell me (1) Kitsap or Pierce, (2) city, (3) property type, and (4) your ideal timeframe, and I’ll outline the most likely leverage points and smartest 2026 listing strategy for that specific scenario.
